AgriCharts Market Commentary

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Corn Market 1 to 2 Cents Lower

Corn are 1 to 2 cents lower this morning. They were up by 2 1/4 to 3 3/4 cents for the nearby contracts on Turnaround Tuesday. The CZ/CH spread was 10.75, as compared to last Tuesday when the spread was at 8.75. This time last year the CZ/CH premium was 11 cents. Corn basis was -0.1478 from Tuesday, bringing the monthly average basis to -0.1501 so far. Last year the basis was -.3529. USDA reported some export business under the daily system for the second day in a row on Tuesday. There was also a 60,000 MT sale reported to South Korea but trade sources suggest that it was not US origin corn. Propane prices are starting to back off a little in the upper Midwest, which should be welcome given the slow drying being seen in the crop. The CN rail strike contributes uncertainty about grain movement in parts of the upper Midwest.

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Soybean Market Higher Overnight

Soybean futures start off Wednesday 2 to 3 cents higher. Yesterday they rallied by 1 1/4 to 2 cents. Soybean meal was up $0.80/ton, and soybean oil gained 32 points to also add product value on Tuesday. The national average soybean basis was -0.6265 per cmdtyView, bringing the monthly average to -0.6638 Dec so far. The 13 day running trend is tightening, starting at the beginning of the month when the basis was -0.7292. Last year the basis for November 19 was -0.8881, and the Nov average up till then had been -0.9827. So we’re about 22 cents firmer than year ago for the month to date. US Soybean FOB prices were reported to be between Brazil and Argentina, @$359.00/MT (~$9.77/bushel).

--- provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Wheat Markets Fade Tuesday Trade

Wheat is trading 1 to 2 1/2 cents lower in the Chicago and KC futures this morning, a fade of Tuesday gains. MPLS spring wheat is fractionally mixed. Wheat futures were mostly higher Tuesday with Kansas City HRW futures leading the way. Chicago wheat futures were up 3 1/4 to 4 3/4 cents, and KC wheat made gains by as much as 7 1/4 cents in nearby contracts. MPLS HRS ended Tuesday steady to 1 cent lower. The lower winter wheat crop condition ratings from USDA this week were in HRW country, with winter white ratings higher. TX was rated 30% good/ex, OK 46, KS 47 and CO 64%. Nebraska got a 70 pct good/ex, while WA was 74 and 73.Japan’s lower house has passed the trade deal signed by President Trump and Prime Minister Shinzo Abe on October 7th, and it should cut tariffs on wheat, beef, pork, among other US ag goods by an estimated $7 billion. Japan’s upper house has yet to sign off, but is expected to before December 9th. Japan has tendered for 119,998 MT of wheat.

-- provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Cattle Market Momentum Slipping, Awaiting Cash Direction

Live cattle futures finished mostly in the red yesterday. Apr was down the most, dropping 20 cents after Tuesday’s trading. Feeder cattle futures also made afternoon recoveries. The last trading day for Nov FC futures is Thursday. They gained 22 cents, while Jan and Mar closed 25 to 45 cents lower on the day. The 11/18 CME Feeder Cattle index was lower by 15 cents to $146.54. Afternoon boxed beef prices were modestly lower. Choice boxes gave back 11 cents, at $239.01. Select boxes were 12 cents lower, to $215.47. The USDA reported minimal cash trading activity through the day with a handful of steers sold between $114-$116. The Fed Cattle Exchange online auction will feature 1398 head, 63% NE, 28% KS. The trade deal with Japan has been ratified by the lower house of the Japanese parliament; the upper house is expected to also sign off on the deal to ratify it into law by December 9th. The trade deal is set to reduce tariffs on beef, pork, wheat and wine to levels similar to those given TPP signatories. The USDA’s weekly estimated FI cattle slaughter is up to 236,000 head through Tuesday, that’s 6,000 head below the same time last year.

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Lean Hogs Seek A Home For More Pork

Lean hog futures recovered from triple digit losses, but still finished 60 cents lower. The 11/15 CME Lean Hog Index was lower by $0.27, at $59.24. USDA’s pork carcass cutout value came back down by $4.47 the afternoon, to $84.67, after being up by 30.141% (29.545% over 11/19 last year) over the same time last year. The ham cuts reached the highest they’d ever been for a November 18th, but gave back $11.81 yesterday afternoon, posted at $83.72. The belly also dropped big, down by $10.54 in the afternoon. USDA’s national average base hog price for 11/19 was 17 cents higher to $42.31. The USDA estimated FI hog slaughter to be a daily record of 494,000 head for Tuesday, following Monday’s near record daily slaughter. The week is on pace to be a record setting weekly slaughter, currently at 987,000 head through Tuesday.

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Cotton Market Grinds Lower Overnight

Cotton futures are 4 to 11 points lower this morning. Futures followed Monday’s decreases with more of the same on Tuesday. Nearby futures posted losses of 63 to 82 points. The dollar index is firmer this morning, with the US stock market a touch weaker. The Seam reported 3,583 bales sold at an average price of 55.07 cents/lb for 11/18. Egyptian cotton has retained profitability, with the Nile Cotton Ginning Report showing a profit of 467,172 Egyptian pounds (28,964.664 U$D) on the year through 9/30. Last year at this point, they reported a net loss of 2,408,783 pounds ($149.344.546). The Cotlook A Index was boosted on 11/18 to 75.50 cents/lb, up 60 points. The AWP for cotton will be 57.06 cents/lb through Thursday.

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management


Market Commentary provided by:

Brugler Marketing & Management LLC
1908 N. 203rd St.Omaha, NE 68022
Phone: 402-697-3623
Fax: 402-289-2353
E-mail: alanb@bruglermktg.com
Web: http://bruglermarketing.com